The Democratic super-majority in the State Senate was tested in the SD 16 Primary Election where on Election Day it looked like the Republican candidate had won the seat outright despite a large Democratic registration advantage.
In subsequent days the vote tightened, with the Republican candidate slipping below the 50% threshold, and forcing a runoff. The late shift in the results was so surprising that Assemblywoman Kristin Olsen tweeted: “Today it is looking like November all over again with provisional ballots. Sure seems fishy.”
The fact is that the late provisional votes, while they were only 2% of the total votes cast, were significantly more Democratic and Latino than the base vote, accounting for the late surge.
However, this late surge of provisional ballots did not impact the overall trends in voter turnout – looking by day as ballots were submitted and recorded, Republicans never exceeded 40% of the vote and Democrats maintained over 50% share of the votes cast for the last two weeks, ending with 51% of the electorate.
While the 51% share for Democrats is consistent with their registration, the Republican turnout was strong enough to take them from 28% of registration to 38% of votes cast. The higher turnout rate for Republicans can be seen from the first day of absentee ballots being submitted to the county.
The full breakdown of SD 16 can be seen using the following countsheets from the PDI database. These counts provide breakdowns for Total Voters in SD16, who voted in the Special Election, who voted Absentee, at Polls and Provisional.