As voting by mail becomes a more common way casting ballots, particularly in low-turnout elections, it becomes imperative to better understand these voters.
A generation ago, voting by mail was uncommon. In fact, the term “Absentee Voting” meant exactly that – a means for voting when you were going to be absent (on vacation, out of town, or unable to physically get to the polls). In most cases the voter had to actually cite an acceptable reason to obtain an absentee ballot.
Now, with the expansion of Permanent Absentee Ballots in California and three other states, the by-mail voter has come to look a lot more like the electorate as a whole.
One key chalenge for campaigns has been figuring out how and when to reach these voters. One tool in the PDI database can help with that targeting – The Absentee Ballot Return (ABR) Scores.
The ABR scores place Absentee voters into one of five categories:
- Always Early – Consistently turning in ballots more than 10 days before Election Day
- Once Early – Once turned in ballot more than 10 days before Election Day
- Early / Late – Mixed history of early and late voting
- Once Late – Once turned in ballot within last 10 days or at the polls
- Always Late – Consistently turns in ballot within last 10 days or at the polls
Analyzing these categories against several past elections provides some great insights. The following chart shows who voted within two weeks of obtaining their absentee ballot during a variety of statewide, local and special elections.
Several lessons can be learned from this simple chart:
1) The contrast between Early and Late balloting is strongest in the Statewide Generals and Primaries. With just two weeks of voting, the “Once/Always Late” shows a scant 5-10% ballot return rate, while the “Always/Once Early” shows upward of 80-90% of their ballots cast.
2) There is a very strong and consistent patterns of early voting among those with an “Always Early PAV” score. Mailing one of these voters in the last two weeks of the election would be throwing away money with 80-90% of them likely to have already voted.
3) The November Odd-Year Elections (UDEL Elections) have the highest rate of ballots being turned in within two weeks of receiving them with nearly 60% having been turned in by then. Even those voters who always turn in their ballots late for Statewide Elections have a 40-50% return rate by this time.
4) Local Low-Turnout Elections are “ending” earlier. If a jurisdiction has elections in which 80% of the voting is done by mail, and 60% of their ballots are mailed in two weeks before Election Day, that means 48% of the ballots are at the registrar. How can a late barrage of TV ads or last minute scandal impact the outcome of a race if nearly half the ballots have already been cast?
In addition to these scores, PDI also obtains regular reports from counties and city clerks to track the actual ballot returns. This allows all of our clients to exclude the “already voted” before sending out expensive mailers.