The second round of LA City Mail Ballot returns drew some attention for a high number of voters (22%) who were casting ballots in the Runoff but hadn’t voted in the Primary. Is this 22% representative of a surge of voters sparked by a more engaging runoff election? If so, would that increase LA City Turnout from the paltry 21% in the Primary to something less-paltry, like 26%?
Or maybe not. The total number of ballots cast so far is still lower than a similar time period before the Primary. This could suggest that some early voters from the March election are not turning out for
June. In other words, the spike in Runoff voters is being offset by an equivalent drop from those who voted in the Primary.
A look at past LA City Elections can give some guidance for what is happening in LA.
In 2005, the last Mayoral contest with a contested runoff, turnout increased between the Primary and General by 6%, with Latinos in particular really impacting the contest with a record 43% turnout. What has never been published before is the fact that this increase was a function of 33% of the electorate being voters who didn’t vote in the Primary, but offset by 21% of the Primary Electorate that didn’t cast ballots in the General.
In raw numbers, 156,000 voters in 2005 were new to the Runoff, but 83,000 Primary voters didn’t participate in that May election – a total shift of 240,000 voters or half of the May Turnout.
As can be seen above (click to enlarge), this shifting of the electorate is higher among Latinos. For this population, 43% of the May voters had missed the Primary and 18% of the Primary voters skipped out on the Runoff. The net result was a 13% increase in turnout for Latinos.
This is very important for targeting. If a campaign in May 2005 was only mailing to the voters who cast ballots in the Primary they would be missing half of the final electorate, and a whopping 73% of the Latinos that turned out!
Finally, is the waning and waxing of turnout tied to council seats where there was a competitive primary, but no runoff? In the 2005 Primary election, only one City Council or LAUSD contest went to the Runoff, a close battle between Flora Krisiloff and Bill Rosendahl that was lost by Rosendahl in the Primary by .1% but which he won in the General by 12%. Voter drop-off between Primary and Runoff in the Rosendahl race was 17% while it gained 31%, a net gain of 7% – just one point over the average.
Collectively the open council seats didn’t seem to have a big impact on Primary turnout and resulting General dropoff. There were three competitive council primaries that were resolved in the Primaries – and they had on just 2% more General Election drop-off than the city-wide average.
The full data tables with turnout, drop-off and new voters by council district, LAUSD board seats (both 2001 old lines) and regions in LA for All voters, Latinos and Non-Latinos can be downloaded here: 2005 ELECTION ANALYSIS