Much has been written about a recent decision by the US Supreme Court to hear the case of Evenwel vs. Abbott and its impact on redistricting. If the court was to side with plaintiffs in this case, the fundamental “one person / one vote” principle in redistricting would be forever altered. The immediate impact would be on the drawing of legislative lines, but it is inconceivable that the decision wouldn’t also change the congressional and local redistricting which follows the same rules for the total size of districts.
We took the national Citizen Voting Age Population dataset from the US Census and used it a a way to better understand who would be the winners and losers in this process. As can be seen here, all congressional districts except for those in single-district states would be impacted. And the greatest negative impact would be in those most heavily Latino and immigrant communities in Southern California, Southern Texas, South Florida and New York City.