It will be several weeks until we have final results in the LA Mayoral race, and maybe a couple weeks after that until we have exactly who voted into the PDI database. However, we already know who the early absentees are, what precincts they voted in, and the results from those precincts.
This information alone allows us to look at voting patterns by party, ethnicity, income, age, etc… And, as can be seen below, these give us a strong sense of what happened in the runoff.
Party Breakdowns: Overall, Gruel did better with Democrats while Garcetti did better with Republicans and those who are not a part of either major political party.
Ethnic Breakdown: Gruel did much better with African Americans, but lagged in support from Latinos, Whites and Asians – communities that were better performing for Garcetti.
This information should be used in concert with exit polling and other points of data to tell the full picture – however the size of the dataset (nearly half the votes cast) makes this a rather compelling method for analyzing Tuesday’s results.
The full PDFs can be downloaded here: LA runoff REGRESSIONS