As the 2013 November Elections come to a close, there are just a few more days left to get out a mailer, prep for final precinct walks, complete Get Out the Vote efforts and launch last-minute phone banks.
As the following tables shows, the absentee turnout to date has been low, but subparts of the electorate have been either over or under-performing in ways that are consistent with past election cycles.
The biggest markers – previous early absentee voting (a PDI flag) shows massive overperformance among those who have turned in their ballots more than 10-days before the election. Similarly, the 13u3 universe, probably the most common universe used this year, has higher than average performance in every county.
Among registration types and households we see some interesting trends. Proponents of online registration could be a bit concerned about the underperformance to date from these voters – however, this is likely a function of age, not just the registration type. Future analysis will breakdown the age/ethnic of these online registrants to see how they perform after the breakout 2012 General election. There is also a trend of stronger performance from homeowners and lower from renters and apartment dwellers.
Among partisans and ethnicities we see a slight over-performance by Republicans and a significant underperformance from Independents. For these graphs we use REPPLUS, DEMPLUS and OTHER which encapsulates not just the partisan-registered voters, but also those who are independents who pull partisan ballots or donate to partisan candidates.